Bitcoin Chasing Gold, the Safe Haven Relay (no crystal ball).

When policy is tight, high rates, money is being drained so investors get cautious and park cash in safer assets like gold. When the Fed pivots easier means rate cuts, ending QT, adding liquidity, fear cools and money rotates into risk assets. That’s when Bitcoin tends to run, usually after a lag.

https://preview.redd.it/0yuuvz988svf1.png?1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccdddd7940513f5950802a9832c7bc0f92ce07bc

I’m not listing the 2017 cycle because gold didn’t break a new ATH then, and the monetary policy environment was different.

2011 cycle (tight to easier, money tap ON):

• Tight backdrop eased (low rate guidance + Operation Twist).
• Gold broke ATH and topped first (Aug 2011).
• Bitcoin followed ~833 days later (Dec 2013 cycle top) as liquidity seeped into risk.

2020 cycle (shock to max easy, money tap ON):

• Panic, then zero rates + big QE (very easy).
• Gold broke ATH and topped first (Aug 2020).
• Bitcoin followed ~469 days later (Nov 2021 cycle top) as risk appetite returned.
• Lag shrank: 833 to 469 days.

2025 Money tap ON (turning up):

• We’ve moved from the 2022-25 tight phase (hikes/QT) toward easier (rate cuts, the Fed just announced QT is ending).
• shrank pace: 469 / (833/469) = 469/1.78 = 264 days.
• If lags keep compressing at a similar pace, use ~260 days as a yardstick (not a prediction) for how quickly BTC could follow gold in an easier money environment, pointing to a mid 2026 window. Also note the Fed chair’s current term ends in May 2026 (bye bye Powell), any leadership change or policy reset could be a macro swing factor.

Treat the sequence ,gold first, BTC later, and the risk bands as a map, not a stopwatch. Watch the liquidity tone (easier vs tighter), DCA in when risk is cooler, DCA out when it runs hot, and skip the urge to call exact tops. Based on my risk metric, BTC $106K = risk 48. If it’s still under 50 this Sunday, I’ll DCA in, sticking to my plan.